Quarterly Growth Data, Weekly Food Inflation: India Week Ahead

India, Asia’s second-fastest growing major economy, is likely to report this week that the pace of expansion slowed to the least in six quarters in the three months to June 30 as borrowing costs rose on inflation.

The Central Statistical Organisation may say gross domestic product increased 7.6 percent in the period from a year earlier, according to the median of 26 estimates in a Bloomberg survey, after gaining 7.8 percent in the previous quarter. The data is due tomorrow at about 11 a.m. in New Delhi.

The central bank has raised its repurchase rate 11 times since the start of 2010 to damp living costs that are rising at the fastest rate among the so-called BRICS nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. It expects growth will slow to 8 percent in the year ending March 31, from an estimated 8.5 percent in the previous 12 months. The average pace since 2006 was 8.6 percent, compared with China’s 9.8 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The commerce ministry is also scheduled to announce trade data for July on Sept. 1 and food inflation for the week ended Aug. 20 the same day.

An index measuring wholesale prices of farm products including rice and wheat rose 9.8 percent in the week to Aug. 13 from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said Aug. 25.
Markets Closed

Financial markets in Mumbai will be closed on Aug. 31 and Sept. 1 for local holidays.

Indian shares dropped for a fifth week, their longest losing streak since October, 2008, on concern a global economic slowdown will erode corporate earnings amid rate increases by the central bank to tame inflation.

The benchmark Sensitive Index, or Sensex, slid 1.8 percent last week. Jaiprakash Associates Ltd., a builder of dams, roads and bridges, and Tata Steel Ltd., the biggest producer of the alloy, were the top losers last week.

The rupee declined for a fourth week on speculation slowing economic growth and inflation that has held above 9 percent this year will deter investors. The Indian currency fell 0.9 percent last week to 46.16 a dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The nation’s 10-year bonds completed their first weekly loss this month after the central bank said efforts by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the U.S. economy may boost commodity prices and fan inflation. The yield on the 7.8 percent note due April 2021 climbed five basis points last week to 8.3 percent, according to the central bank’s trading system.

Events/Earnings                                Date
GDP data                                      Aug. 30
Trade data                                    Sept. 1
Weekly food inflation data              Sept. 1