Brazil Signals Fifth Straight Interest-Rate Increase Might Have Been Last

Brazil’s central bank signaled that a fifth straight increase in borrowing costs may be enough to contain inflation running at a six-year high.

Policy makers, led by central bank President Alexandre Tombini, increased the Selic rate by a quarter point to 12.50 percent yesterday. In a one-sentence statement accompanying the decision, which was expected by all 57 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, policy makers withdrew a commitment made in April and June to raise rates for a “sufficiently long” period.

Whether policy makers raise rates again this year depends on whether the global economy deteriorates further, helping ease price pressures in Latin America’s biggest economy, analysts from Barclays Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. Economists doubt Tombini will succeed in bringing price increases to the 4.5 percent target next year even if he raises the benchmark rate again in August, according to the most-recent bank survey.

“Traders will price in a huge chance that the central bank won’t raise rates in August,” said Marcelo Salomon, chief Brazil economist for Barclays Plc in New York. “If the global situation worsens, this may have been the last increase.”

Salomon expects one more quarter-point rate increase in August, and forecasts consumer prices will rise 5.6 percent next year.

Traders, who correctly predicted yesterday’s move, this morning increased bets that policy makers will hold rates next month. The yield on the interest rate futures contract maturing in January 2012 had its biggest decline in more than two months, dropping 0.03 percentage point to 12.46 percent at 8:07 a.m. in New York.
‘Complexity’

The central bank “removed the language suggesting a prolonged period of rate adjustments, so in a way they are signaling that they could interrupt the cycle in the near term,” said Alberto Ramos, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York. “They are increasingly attuned to global risk.”

Tombini has repeatedly cited the “complexity” of the global economy as a reason why policy makers need to proceed with caution.

Consumer prices rose 0.10 percent in mid-July, the slowest pace in 11 months, led by declines in food and gasoline costs, the national statistics agency said yesterday. The report surprised analysts, who had forecast a 0.15 percent rise, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The lower-than-expected increase could make the central bank feel “more comfortable” about keeping rates unchanged at 12.50 percent, said Flavio Serrano, senior economist at Espirito Santo Investment Bank in Sao Paulo.
Policy Balance

Still, annual inflation quickened to 6.75 percent in the year through mid-July. Tombini expects annual price rises to start slowing after August. The central bank targets inflation of 4.5 percent, plus or minus two percentage points.

A higher Selic rate may attract more foreign investment, which President Dilma Rousseff’s government blames for a rally in the currency that’s hurting manufacturers.

The real rose to its strongest level since 1999 this month. The currency’s 48 percent advance against the U.S. dollar since the end of 2008 is the best performance among 25 emerging market currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

The real strengthened 0.3 percent to 1.5607 per U.S. dollar at 8.08 a.m. New York time.
Response

Rousseff’s administration is relying on a combination of higher interest rates, budget cuts and curbs on consumer credit to cool demand. The central bank is “very likely” to impose more measures to slow credit expansion, said Enestor Dos Santos, senior Brazil economist for BBVA in Madrid.

Total outstanding credit grew 20 percent in May from a year earlier, led by a 50 percent surge in mortgage credit. In June, the central bank raised its forecast for 2011 credit growth to 15 percent, from its previous forecast of 13 percent.

In December, the central bank raised banks’ reserve requirements to slow credit growth, and in April Finance Minister Guido Mantega doubled to 3 percent the so-called IOF tax on consumer credit.

The measures taken so far haven’t convinced analysts the government has done enough to meet its target for consumer prices.

Inflation expectations for 2012 rose to 5.2 percent, according to a July 15 central bank survey of economists, from 4.5 percent at the start of the year.

By failing to provide investors with clear guidance on its likely next move, the central has left traders free to draw their own conclusions, Andre Perfeito, chief economist at Gradual Investimentos in Sao Paulo, said. This will cause volatility in the interest rate futures market, he added.

“Tomorrow is going to be a busy day,” Perfeito said.