A steep hill to climb

WITH their man through to the second round of Brazil’s presidential elections, supporters of José Serra’s Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB) are allowing themselves to hope. For months Mr Serra had lagged in the polls behind Dilma Rousseff of the Workers’ Party (PT), the chosen successor of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the wildly popular current president. In the first round, held on October 3rd, Mr Serra received 33% of the vote, against 47% for Ms Rousseff. Although that was not particularly impressive, winning four more weeks to fight on seemed a modest victory for the PSDB, since it had feared that Ms Rousseff would get an absolute majority and win outright.

Both candidates have now gone on the attack. In the first televised head-to-head debate, on October 10th, Mr Serra accused Ms Rousseff of being two-faced, citing her recent abandonment of support for a relaxation of Brazil’s abortion rules and her varying statements regarding her religious beliefs. The abortion theme continued in his television advertising, which opened and closed with shots of pregnant women stroking their bellies and mothers cuddling newborn babies to a voiceover that said Mr Serra would protect Brazilian babies before they were born. Few Brazilians support easier access to legal abortion, and Mr Serra is a lifelong Catholic without any inclination to relax the rules.

Ms Rousseff, for her part, accused her opponent of supporting something almost as controversial in Brazil: privatisation. Sadly, Mr Serra—ostensibly the conservative candidate in the race—countered not by pointing out that a bit of privatisation would be a jolly good thing for the country, but by saying that he would do no such thing and that Lula had done some privatising of his own.

Behind the scenes, both parties are also trying to pick up the support of the nearly 20% of the electorate that plumped for a third candidate, Marina Silva of the Green Party. Quite a few voters turned to Ms Silva in the fortnight or so before the first-round election, presumably driven away from Ms Rousseff by the abortion issue or various corruption scandals. But most of the 10% or so who have supported her for longer have done so for environmental reasons, and would probably be influenced by an endorsement from the Green Party. The PSDB is said to have offered the party four ministries, a proposal that is thought to have tempted some members, although not Ms Silva herself.

For the PT, recent history makes this a somewhat delicate task. Ms Silva is a former member of the PT and was Lula’s environment minister until 2008, when she left both the party and the government, frustrated by losing clashes with rivals who thought industrial development should trump environmental concerns—such as Ms Rousseff. Still, nothing ventured, nothing gained: the PT has sent Carlos Minc, Ms Silva successor as environment minister, to try to patch things up. “I’m not saying Dilma is a card-carrying environmentalist,” Mr Minc told Estado de São Paulo, a newspaper. “She’s pro-development, but pro-development with environmental sensitivity.” He has been authorised to promise a variety of green-friendly policies, including lower taxes on equipment for solar- and wind-power generation and a review of a proposed amnesty for illegal logging.

The most recent findings from Datafolha, a polling outfit, suggest that although things may be moving Mr Serra’s way, it is not by much. Published on October 11th, these give 41% to Mr Serra against 48% for Ms Rousseff. Excluding respondents who are undecided or plan to cast a blank vote, this translates into a 58 54-46 edge for Ms Rousseff. That may simply be insurmountable with just over two weeks to go. If exactly the same people turn out on October 31st as on October 3rd and each of the candidates keep their votes, Mr Serra would need to win over 85% of Ms Silva’s supporters to triumph.