Reforming finance – Bare-knuckle in Basel
31 de maio de 2010‘Economia não aceita desaforo’
2 de junho de 2010In the 1960s and 1970s, in an attempt to explain why the eternal country of the future did not seem to be getting closer to a satisfying destiny, Brazilian intellectuals developed an explanatory theory. Known as the “Theory of Dependence,” one of its prominent exponents was a younger Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
Is the theory of dependence making a comeback? Are “external obstacles” once again pushing Brazil to the “periphery?”
The possibility of a new era of economic dependence, not just of Brazil, but Latin America and the Caribbean in general, was discussed at the 33rd Session of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Commission (Cepal) which took place this weekend in Brasilia.
Alicia Barcena, the Cepal executive secretary, expressed the problem succintly: “Latin American and the Caribbean cannot allow a repeat of the situation in the 1980s and 1990s when there was an excessive dependency on the United States. The danger now is with China, even though the economic perspectives in Asia are so bright. Latin America simply cannot afford to be so dependent again.”
China has definitely become the region’s main trading partner. According to Barcena, Latin America must do three things to break out of the present situation: move beyond being just commodity exporters, diversify exporter markets and work to strengthen domestic markets. Otherwise it will be difficult to deal with future crises.
Barcena pointed to the profoundly adverse effects of the 2008 United States financial crisis in Mexico and some Caribbean countries. She said Brazil suffered less because it had managed to open new markets in Asia. But now China is Brazil’s principal commercial partner. In 1999, total bilateral Brazil – China trade was $1.5 billion. Today it is $36.4 billion.
