Dismissals and probes weigh on Brazil president

While
the global spotlight has been on the political and economic crises
rocking Europe and the US, Dilma Rousseff, Brazil’s president, has had
her own share of intrigue at home.

Less than eight months into her presidency, Brazil’s centre-left
leader has already had to replace three ministers and faces sweeping
police investigations of alleged corruption at her agriculture and
tourism ministries.

Some
analysts paint the series of ministerial dismissals as the
“housekeeping” of a new president. But others are concerned that the
problems could stem from infighting within her unwieldy multi-party
governing coalition that could jeopardise crucial longer-term economic
reforms.

“Although it seems like a housekeeping operation, I don’t think it’s
that deliberate,” says João Augusto de Castro Neves, a Washington-based
analyst and political editor of The Brazilian Economy magazine. “It’s
the result of friendly fire.”

Ms Rousseff, a former bureaucrat who has never before held elected
office, took over in January from Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who by the
end of his second term last December was one of Brazil’s most popular
presidents.

She has the image of an honest and competent manager presiding over
solid economic growth in spite of the global debt crisis. In a study
published last week by a polling firm, Ibope, 67 per cent of people
surveyed approved of the way she was governing.

However, there are signs the scandals and tougher economic conditions
– the government was forced to raise interest rates this year to combat
inflation – have taken a toll. Her rating has fallen by six percentage
points since March while the number of people surveyed who disapprove of
her governing style has doubled to 25 per cent.

The poll also found that the most-remembered aspect of her government
to date was a corruption row that claimed the scalp of the minister of
transport last month as well an ethics scandal that felled her most
senior minister, Antonio Palocci, in June.

Those scandals have since been followed by the loss of her third
cabinet member, defence minister Nelson Jobim, for publicly criticising
fellow cabinet members, including saying that he was surrounded by
“idiots”.

Ms Rousseff was then forced to stand by her agriculture minister,
Wagner Rossi, after a police investigation of alleged kickbacks by his
ministry. And last week, her government was shaken again when the
federal police arrested 33 tourism ministry officials and associated
businessmen, including the deputy tourism minister.

The police suspect that millions of dollars intended to provide
professional training for workers in advance of the World Cup and
Olympics was embezzled.

Three of the ministers in question – Mr Jobim, Mr Wagner and Pedro
Novais Lima, minister of tourism – are members of the PMDB, a collection
of regional politicians that is the biggest coalition partner of Ms
Rousseff’s Workers’ party (PT).

Most of those involved in the allegations, including the ministers, have denied wrongdoing.

David Fleischer, political analyst at the University of Brasília,
says the investigations would increase tensions within Ms Rousseff’s
ruling coalition.

“The [PMDB] is threatening reprisals against the PT if the
housecleaning creates a very heavy impact on agriculture minister Wagner
Rossi,” he says in a report.

Last week, in an apparent warning to Ms Rousseff, 200 deputies from
four government coalition parties obstructed a presidential decree that
would have authorised a treaty to co-operate with China against criminal
activities, he said.

Already several other important bills are stuck before the
legislature, including a tax overhaul considered crucial to improve
Brazil’s competitiveness as well as fresh laws for mining and oil
royalties.

Ms Rousseff has had several victories – she was able to keep a lid on
bloated government spending and a proposal to increase the minimum wage
that would have worsened inflation. Now the challenge will be to try to
put these scandals behind her, while keeping the economy on track and
regaining the initiative on the legislative agenda.

“Part of her popularity comes from a perception that she is a person
who will confront wrongdoing,” said another US-based political analyst.
“But if all there is to see is wrongdoing, the public will become
disillusioned.”