Winners and losers in the global recession

Hopes that the economic slump in Europe has bottomed out were raised today when Germany and France pulled out of recession, earlier than expected. By contrast, Britain remains mired in the downturn, although it too is expected to come out of recession soon. In the United States, the latest comments from the Federal Reserve have been markedly more optimistic and unemployment recorded a surprise dip last week, suggesting the world’s largest economy may have turned the corner.

UK – in recession
Britain’s economy is in worse shape than much of the rest of western Europe, having shrunk by 0.8% in the second quarter. It too is forecast to emerge from recession soon, but recovery could be “slow and protracted”, Bank of England governor Mervyn King warned yesterday, as he attacked the big banks for their role in tipping the world into recession.

United States – in recession
The Federal Reserve was more optimistic when it said last night the economy appeared to be “levelling out” – a considerable upgrade from its last meeting in June, when the central bank observed only that the economy’s contraction was slowing. The comments came after a surprise dip in the US unemployment rate last week. The world’s largest economy contracted by an annual rate of 1% in the second quarter, a marked improvement on the previous three months when the economy slumped by 6.4%, the biggest decline since 1982.

Germany – out of recession
Europe’s largest economy has climbed out of recession earlier than predicted. A 0.3% rise in gross domestic product in the second quarter ended four quarters of contraction – Germany’s deepest recession since the second world war.

France – out of recession
France has surprised economists by returning to growth of 0.3% in the second quarter, ending four quarters of contraction.

Italy – in recession
Italy reported a 0.5% decline in second-quarter GDP last week, better than the 2.7% fall recorded in the first quarter, but remains in recession.

Spain
Second-quarter figures for Spain are not available yet, although ING reckons it continued to shrink after a 1.9% decline in the first three months of the year.

Ireland
Ireland has not released data for the second quarter yet. It shrank by 1.5% in the first quarter and by 5.4% in the fourth quarter of last year.

Portugal – out of recession
Portugal joined Germany and France when it came out of recession today with a 0.3% rise in second-quarter GDP.

Greece – dodged recession
Greece had only one quarter of contraction – down 1.2% in the first quarter – thus avoiding recession. It grew by 0.3% in the second quarter.

Sweden – out of recession
Sweden recorded zero growth in the second quarter, ending a string of declines.

Austria – in recession
Austria’s economy shrank by 0.4% between April and June, an improvement on the 2.7% slump recorded in the first quarter.

Belgium – in recession
Belgium also contracted by 0.4%, compared with a 1.7% decline in the first three months of the year.

Netherlands – in recession
The Netherlands fared worse than the UK in the second quarter, with a 0.9% slump in GDP, although that was better than the first quarter’s 2.7% slump.

Slovakia – stayed out of recession
The East European country returned to growth of 2.2% between April and June, compared with an 11% slump in the first quarter. It has managed to stay out of recession in recent quarters.

Japan – still in recession
Japan’s economy, the world’s second largest, is expected to have pulled out of its deepest post-war recession, with economists pencilling in growth of 1% for the second quarter. This would mark the first expansion in five quarters.

China – growing faster than before
China’s economic growth accelerated in the second quarter as a massive stimulus package kicked in, triggering hopes that it could drive the rest of the world towards recovery. Annual GDP growth in the world’s third largest economy picked up to 7.9% from 6.1% in the first quarter. It is on course to achieve its growth target of 8% for the year.

India – still growing
India is on track for growth of about 8% this year, making it one of the best performing economies in the world, although its rate of growth has slowed in recent quarters.

Australia – stayed out of recession
Australia has dodged recession so far, with a 0.4% rise in first-quarter GDP.

Singapore – out of recession
Singapore leapt out of recession in the second quarter with a 20.7% jump in gross domestic product.

Thailand
Thailand’s economy slipped into its first recession in a decade in the first quarter. A government official has estimated that GDP fell by 5%-6% in the second quarter, compared with a 7.1% slump in the first.

Brazil – still in recession
Latest economic indicators point to positive growth in Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, in the second quarter and to around zero growth over the year as a whole. Economists predict 1.5% growth in the second quarter, a vast improvement from the first quarter’s 0.8% fall which tipped Brazil into recession.