Brazilian Economists Predict Faster Growth, Inflation in 2010
JUSTIÇA DE SÃO PAULO DETERMINA QUE O MUNICIPIO AUTORIZE A EXPEDIÇÃO DE NOTAS FISCAIS ELETRÔNICAS.
9 de fevereiro de 2024
Por que Rússia deve crescer mais do que todos os países desenvolvidos, apesar de guerra e sanções, segundo o FMI
18 de abril de 2024Economists covering the Brazilian economy expect accelerating economic growth and faster inflation in Brazil this year, cementing expectations that the central bank may raise rates in the first quarter of 2011.
The economy will expand 7.53 percent in 2010, up from a week-earlier forecast of 7.47 percent, according to the median forecast in a Sept. 24 central bank survey of about 100 economists published today. That would be the fastest growth since 1985, when the economy expanded 7.85 percent.
Inflation will quicken to 5.15 percent over the next 12 months, from a week-earlier forecast of 5.12 percent. This was the fifth straight week that 12-month inflation expectations have risen.
The elevated inflation and growth forecasts highlight market participants’ skepticism of policy makers’ view that slower global growth will cool Brazil’s economy, Luis Otavio Leal, chief economist at Banco ABC SA, said in a phone interview from Sao Paulo.
“The market bet against the central bank’s strategy of putting all their money on this idea that external deflation will pull down internal inflation,” Leal said. “Domestic demand is very hot.”
Economists raised their 2010 inflation forecast to 5.05 percent, from 5.01 percent. For 2011, inflation expectations fell to 4.94 percent, from 4.95 percent. The bank targets inflation of 4.5 percent, plus or minus two percentage points.
Policy makers on Sept. 1 held the benchmark Selic rate unchanged at 10.75 percent after raising it a total of two percentage points at their previous three meetings to stop the economy from overheating. Analysts forecast the bank will hold rates this year and raise them to 11.75 percent by the end of 2011, the survey found.
The real was little changed at 1.7122 per dollar at 9:28 a.m. New York time, from 1.7109 on Sept. 24. In the overnight interest-rate futures market, the yield on the contract due in January 2013, the most traded today on Sao Paulo’s BM&F Exchange, fell two basis points to 11.77 percent.
