The latest weekly survey of the financial market by the Central Bank’s Focus report, ending August 5, found that the forecast for GDP growth this year has fallen slightly from 3.96% to 3.94%. For 2012, the forecast is for GDP growth of 4%.
Expectations for industrial output also dropped slightly, from 3.21% to 3.01%. The forecast for next year is just over 4.3%.
The projection for public sector debt as a percentage of GDP was lowered from 39.26% to 39.10% this year. For 2012, the projection is 38%.
As for the dollar, the market sees it at R$1.60 at the end of this year. And at R$1.65 at the end of 2012.
The forecast for the trade surplus is now $22 billion (up from $21 billion last week). In 2012, the market now believes it will be $10,65 billion.
The market forecast for the current account deficit is $59 billion this year. And around $69 billion next year.
As for direct foreign investment, the market sees it steady at $55 billion this year, falling to $50 billion next year.