Market analysts raise inflation estimates for sixth consecutive week and see lower interest rate

The Central Bank’s weekly survey of financial institutions and analysts, Focus, reports that market estimates for inflation, as measured by the National Consumer Price Index (“IPCA”), the yardstick the government uses, hás risen to 5.15%, up from 5.11% a week ago. This is the sixth week in a row that Focus has registered higher inflation estimates.

Focus also found market estimates had risen slightly for other prices indexes, such as the IPC-FIPE, the IGP-DI, IGP-M and the so-called administered prices (“preços administrados”), that is, prices controlled by the government.

The government’s official inflation target is 4.5%, as measured by the IPCA, give or take two percentage points. In other words, the government’s inflation ceiling is 6.5%.

The most recent Focus report also found that market estimates for the country’s benchmark interest rate, the Selic, presently at 8%, is for it to be reduced to 7.5% at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (“Copom”) at the end of this month. The market also foresees a further Selic reduction before the end of the year with the result that the forecast is for it to close out 2012 at 7.25%.