Lula, the president of Brazil, stands by the leader of the Senate
Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, continues to back the besieged Senate leader, José Sarney, who is battling multiple accusations of misconduct and nepotism. Speculation has circled in recent days around whether Mr Sarney, a former president (1985-90), is on the verge of resigning from his powerful post. But he hails from Brazil’s largest political party, Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasiliero (PMDB), a key ally in the governing alliance. Lula therefore must walk a fine line in striving to hold together his support base without damaging himself by defending the tainted politician.
A meeting that reportedly was to take place between Lula and Mr Sarney on August 3rd raised the prospect that the president might push the Senate president to stand down. Instead, Lula reiterated his support for Mr Sarney. The veteran politician seems mostly concerned about the damage that the recent revelations are doing to his political legacy and is trying to cling on to his leadership of the upper house.
As he presided over the Senate’s reopening on August 3rd following a two-week recess, Mr Sarney rallied key allies behind him in a public show of support. These included the leader of the PMDB, Renan Calheiros (himself forced to step down as Senate head in late 2007 amid corruption accusations), and another former president, Fernando Collor de Melo (1990-92), who was impeached in 1992, also on the grounds of corruption. Mr Collor now serves as a senator from the Partido Trabalhista Brasileiro (PTB).
However, an argument that ensued between the pro-Sarney senators and a dissident PMDB senator, Pedro Simon, served to up the ante. On August 4th senators from various other parties—Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB), Demócratas (DEM), Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) and Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB)—united to renew calls for Mr Sarney’s resignation. Even some members of the governing Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) want Mr Sarney to step aside temporarily while investigations into the charges of misconduct are concluded.
PMDB is powerbroker
Corruption allegations against Mr Sarney have emerged in a steady stream in recent weeks. These include tax evasion, illegal money wire transfers, misappropriation of public funds and nepotism. However, Lula has defended Mr Sarney because he needs the backing of the PMDB, not only to advance his legislative agenda (which includes proposed changes to the law that regulates the oil sector) but also to boost the electoral chances of his preferred presidential candidate, Dilma Rousseff, currently Lula’s civil chief of staff. The president is barred under the constitution from running for a third consecutive term in 2010, and has ruled out a constitutional change to allow him to do so.
Some senators from the governing PT who previously were openly critical of Mr Sarney have since stepped back into line because of the potential political damage that a split with the PMDB could cause (even as others call for him to step down temporarily). As long as Mr Sarney has Lula’s full support, his opponents are unlikely to secure enough votes in Congress to force his ouster (although they might be able to stall legislative activity).
Petrobras probe
A new investigation has further complicated the situation. In mid-July Congress initiated a probe (known as a parliamentary investigatory commission, or CPI), into supposed misconduct by Petróleo Brasiliero (Petrobras), the state-controlled energy company. In early July the press alleged that some funds transferred by Petrobras to the José Sarney Foundation, a non-governmental organisation (NGO) based in São Luis (in the north-eastern state of Maranhão, the stronghold of the Sarney family), were siphoned off. Lula now also needs the PMDB to control this investigatory process and fend off any negative repercussions for his government.
The government hopes to limit the damage by keeping a united front among the PMDB, the PT and its other smaller allies. The fact that the upper house named a PT senator, João Pedro, as the president of the Petrobras CPI and Romero Jucá of the PMDB to the second-most important post of reporter has increased the chances that government supporters can effectively control the investigatory committee and head off a major crisis ahead of the 2010 elections—but only as long as the alliance with the PMDB holds.
Time running out
Lula himself has survived, virtually unscathed, numerous corruption scandals that have affected members of his administration and his party since he first took office in 2003. However, the current cases, on the eve of an electoral year and just a year and a half before his term ends, present a new set of risks to his legacy and the PT’s hopes to retain power in 2010 elections.
Despite the need to keep the PMDB by his side, Lula may yet have to distance himself, albeit delicately, from Mr Sarney if further damaging allegations surface. Yet Mr Sarney seems set on hanging on, and even if he were forced to step down as Senate president he probably would not be ousted from the Senate itself.
In the context of a weaker economy and a electorate tiring of corruption scandals, the latest affairs, combined with the tensions within the governing alliance resulting from the investigations, could reduce the PT’s chances of securing a third presidential term in 2010. The longer the investigations last, the greater will be the benefit to the biggest opposition party, the PSDB. The PSDB will seek to take maximum advantage of the probes to damage the government, and thereby boost the prospects of its likely presidential candidate, José Serra, the current governor of São Paulo state.