Cracks within and without

When Manuel Zelaya sneaked back into Honduras on September 21st and holed up in Brazil’s embassy he seemed to hope for a tide of popular protest that would restore him to the presidency from which he was ousted by a coup three months ago. Instead he has forced the man who replaced him, Roberto Micheletti, into mistakes.

Mr Micheletti took over with the backing of the army, the congress and the courts after Mr Zelaya defied all three by trying to organise a consultative referendum on changing the constitution, with the apparent aim of seeking a second term. The de facto government said its only job was to organise a presidential election due on November 29th, and ruled with a fairly light touch.

Mr Zelaya’s return prompted Mr Micheletti to behave like the authoritarian he claims not to be. On September 26th he imposed a state of siege, suspending constitutional freedoms, and used hundreds of troops to shut down a television channel and radio station that supported Mr Zelaya. A curfew remains in force, sometimes during daylight hours. Three people were killed as the security forces crushed protests. The government expelled four envoys from the Organisation of American States (OAS), and gave Brazil an ultimatum of ten days in which to grant Mr Zelaya asylum or face unspecified consequences. In these circumstances Mr Micheletti’s insistence that the election will be free and fair rang hollow.

Mr Micheletti has rejected a plan, backed by the OAS, under which Mr Zelaya would serve out the rest of his term until January but with his powers curtailed. Now, for the first time, there are cracks in the acting government. Congress refused to endorse the state of siege. The two main presidential candidates and the head of the army all called for a negotiated settlement. The private sector is starting to worry about the cost of the power struggle. The president of the industrialists’ association this week proposed a plan to reinstate Mr Zelaya, albeit under house arrest. Swiftly backtracking, Mr Micheletti said he would lift the state of siege and let the OAS back in.

Mr Zelaya’s inflammatory tactics, too, have alienated some governments. Lewis Anselem, the United States’ ambassador to the OAS, called his return “irresponsible and foolish”, while also criticising Mr Micheletti. Four other countries joined Mr Anselem in arguing that Mr Zelaya’s reinstatement should not be a precondition for the OAS recognising the election. This intractable little fight threatens wider rifts.