Central Bank releases weekly survey on inflation, growth and interest rates

The Central Bank’s weekly survey of financial institution and market sentiment, the Focus report, found that for the seventh consecutive week, estimates for inflation, as measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (“IPCA”), fell slightly, from 4.95% to 4.93%. The market forecast for 2013 remains steady at 5.5%. It should be pointed out that both estimates are above the target of 4.5% set by the administration. However, there is wiggle room as the core target comes with a plus or minus two percentage points.

The international financial crisis has also led the market to lower its estimates for GDP growth. In the latest Focus survey, the market forecast was for growth of 2.05%, down from a prior estimate of 2.18%. For 2013, the forecast is for growth of 4.2%.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank also lowered its growth estimate for this year from 3.5% to 2.5%. However, the Ministry of Finance says it continues to expect GDP growth this year of more than the 2.7% in 2010.

At the same time, the Focus report found that the market forecast for the country’s benchmark interest rate, the Selic, is for it to close out the year at 7.5%. At the moment, it is 8.5%, the lowest it has been since records began in 1999. The market forecast is for the Selic to rise to 9% at the end of 2013.