Brazil economy shows new signs of slowdown

Brazil’s booming economy showed new signs of a moderate slowdown on Friday, as consumers and factories responded to tighter credit, easing worries about overheating.

Retail sales unexpectedly slid 0.2 percent in April from March, the first such decline in a year, according to the IBGE statistics institute. Employment in industry also fell 0.1 percent on a monthly basis, the IBGE said.

Friday’s reports were the latest in a series of economic data to suggest that Latin America’s largest economy is slowing to a more sustainable rate of growth, following a prolonged government push to bring inflation back within the target range and prevent bubbles from developing.

Officials have raised interest rates 1.50 percentage points this year, including a rate increase on Wednesday, and have passed other measures to curb credit, including limits on how
much banks can lend out.

While some areas such as Brazilian real estate continue to expand at a robust pace, other recent data, such as a tumble in April industrial production, a slowdown in consumer credit, and a slower pace of inflation in May, suggest that the credit measures are taking effect.

“There’s definitely a moderate slowdown underway,” said Paul Biszko, a senior emerging markets strategist with RBC. “I would call it a soft landing so far.”

However, Biszko warned the government isn’t out of the woods yet. “The key thing is that they don’t abandon their tighter monetary and fiscal policies too soon.”

Mexico, Peru and Colombia have also shown signs recently of progress in their fight against inflation. Several countries around Latin America have tightened monetary policy this year, and slowing activity in China — the top buyer of the region’s commodities — may also help contain prices.

A Reuters survey of 17 economists had foreseen an increase of 0.3 percent in Brazil’s April retail sales.

The central bank has raised interest rates four times this year, most recently to 12.25 percent from 12 percent on Wednesday, to brake above-target inflation. Analysts say another rate increase is likely in July.

President Dilma Rousseff has also promised to cut 50 billion reais ($31.5 billion) from the budget to cool the economy after public spending bloated last year ahead of theOctober elections.

“Parts of the economy are significantly overheated,” such as the real estate sector, and the government has more to do to turn an expected 4 percent expansion this year sustainable over the long term, Biszko said.

While recent inflation indexes have slowed month over month, the 12-month rate is expected to pick up from its current 6.55 percent because last year’s price increases were small at this time of year. The central bank is targeting inflation of 4.5 percent plus or minus 2 percentage points this year.

But with some commodity prices dipping and major worl economies still uncertain, regional economies have begun slowing, and some policy-makers are easing up on the brakes.

In Peru, the central bank held interest rates after five months of tightening on Thursday. Peru’s consumer price index fell 0.02 percent in May, its first drop since October.