President’s Chosen Successor Widens Lead in Brazil Poll

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva moved closer to extending his legacy in October elections after his handpicked successor took a commanding lead in a key weekend poll.

Mr. da Silva’s former chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff, from his left-wing Workers Party, rose five percentage points to 41% of potential votes, topping opposition politician José Serra, who slid four points to 33%, the Datalfolha poll showed.

The weekend poll showed Green Party candidate Marina Silva unchanged with with 10%.

The results show that Mr. da Silva, unable to run for re-election after serving two terms, is succeeding in his strategy of transferring his immense popularity to the relatively unknown Ms. Rousseff, who vows to continue his policies of job creation through spending on big infrastructure projects, expanding government payrolls and giving the poor direct cash assistance.

A onetime Marxist guerrilla who battled cancer last year, 62-year-old Ms. Rousseff trailed by as many as 10 points in March. But she pulled essentially even by May after an intense string of joint appearances and television spots with Mr. da Silva. The campaign’s pace has accelerated since the July end of the World Cup, which had mostly drowned out the presidential campaigns in this soccer-mad nation.

Ms. Rousseff’s message of continuity has also resonated well in a booming economy that grew 9% in the first three months of the year.

Making things easier, Mr. Serra, who lost to Mr. da Silva in the 2002 presidential race, has run a lackluster campaign. The former São Paulo governor has appeared mirthless on the campaign trail, and squabbled with political allies over his vice-presidential choice. Most importantly, he has failed to differentiate his own left-of-center economic views from those of Ms. Rousseff.

To be sure, fortunes can change quickly in Brazilian politics and Mr. Serra still has time to reverse his slide before the Oct. 3 vote. His campaign officials say the weekendpoll was conducted too early to reflect high-profile television interviews by Mr. Serra.

All the same, a growing number of political experts here expect Ms. Rousseff to win. Lately,debate among campaign observers centers not on if, but when: Ms. Rousseff needs 50% of the vote in a first voting round to avoid a runoff.

The weekendpoll results are sure to heighten international scrutiny of the former energy minister. Officials who have worked with her say she has succeeded as a hard-driving executor of Mr. da Silva’s policies. But since Ms. Rousseff has never held elected office, there is an air of mystery as to how she might govern.

One concern raised by critics is that she may be more driven by left wing ideology than Mr. da Silva, a former union leader whose pragmatic streak won over international investors. University educated, Ms. Rousseff grew up in a privileged household, and joined the Marxist underground during Brazil’s military dictatorship. She was jailed for her insurgent activities and tortured in the 1970s.

Her critics expect her to expand the role of the government in key areas such as energy generation and infrastructure construction. Brazil would also continue a foreign policy of close engagement with U.S. adversaries like Iran.

Though she has a radical background, Ms Rousseff has vowed in meetings with investors in New York and in São Paulo to maintain the orthodox underpinnings of Brazil’s economy, such as a floating exchange rate.