Dilma’s popularity survives crisis

Dilma Rousseff’s spring-cleaning of her fledgling government seems to have done her popularity little harm, if any.

Last week, the president lost her most important minister, Antonio Palocci, to an ethics scandal and was forced to replace him with a first-time senator, Gleisi Hoffman.

Now she has replaced her institutional affairs minister Luiz Sergio Oliveira with Ideli Salvatti, an experienced hand from her Workers’ Party (PT).

In spite of the infighting and the bad publicity surrounding Palocci, who was accused of rapidly accumulating wealth while serving as a congressman, Rousseff remains one of the most popular presidents in Brazilian history.

Her approval rating in a Datafolha poll carried in the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper found that 49 per cent of those interviewed believed her government was good or excellent, up from 47 per cent in March.

Voters are perhaps pleased that she has dealt decisively with a crisis in her party that initially raised doubts over her ability to control her unwieldy coalition.

Hoffman, a promising but inexperienced senator, was not expected to be able to play the same role as the wily Mr Palocci, a former finance minister who was seen as capable of dealing with the PT’s coalition partners.

Oliveira was supposed to be playing a coordinating role in his position as institutional affairs minister but he was judged inadequate by the coalition partners, says David Fleischer of the University of Brasília.

Oliveira had earned the nickname of garçom – or waiter – as someone who took orders but was unable to deliver on them to his customers. In other words, he listened to coalition partners’ requests but did not have enough influence with Rousseff to be able to persuade her to listen. He has taken over Salvatti’s former post as fisheries minister.

A highly experienced politician, Salvatti is seen as made of sterner stuff. She has good relations with the leadership of the PMDB – the PT’s main coalition partner –having defended some of them after they were involved in their own scandals in the past.

She is also someone who will have ready access to the president’s office when she needs it.

Having survived her first political crisis, the challenge for President Rousseff now will be to deliver on her legislative and reform agenda. This is a good time to take tough decisions before the early glow of her presidency wears off and the electoral calendar begins to pick up again.