China, India Forge Alternative to UN Climate Treaty

China and India’s joint plan to cut greenhouse-gas emissions gives the developing world an alternative to the climate treaty that wealthier nations want them to sign in Copenhagen, analysts said.

Asia’s two biggest polluters from burning carbon-based fuels announced their collaboration on renewable power and energy-efficiency projects in a memo of understanding yesterday in New Delhi. They again rejected limits on emissions blamed for global warming that industrialized nations have proposed.

“They’re trying to gain leverage going into Copenhagen and show the world they have other options if the global talks break down,” said Olav Roenningen, senior analyst at the carbon- markets advisory firm Markedskraft in Arendal, Norway.

The New Delhi accord shows how support may be eroding for a global treaty that United Nations negotiators aim to conclude this December in Copenhagen. Led by China and India, developing nations are devising similar regional agreements after failing to convince wealthier countries including the U.S. to share clean-energy technology or to reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions by 40 percent in 2020 from 1990 levels.

Speculation that countries won’t produce a treaty has grown this month after Yvo De Boer, the UN’s top climate official, said on Oct. 13 that the Copenhagen summit may be “half-baked” unless richer nations agree to do more to trim gas emissions.

Perceived as Ploy?

“When India and China take the lead, the rest usually follow,” said Michael Mason, director of the conservation program at Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics. Still, their new accord may be seen “as a ploy to say we’re going to go ahead and start dealing bilaterally if we can’t come to a multilateral agreement.”

China and India together account for about one-fourth of the emissions blamed for global warming that scientists say leads to rising sea levels as well as altered weather patterns that cause more intense storms and droughts.

De Boer defended regional accords, saying today they don’t undermine global treaty talks. “Countries are beginning to form common ideas on the treaty and that makes it easier” for an international deal, he said in an interview in New Delhi.

The accord was signed by Xie Zhenhua, vice minister at China’s National Development and Reform Commission, and Indian environment minister Jairam Ramesh in India’s capital.

More Regional Deals

“We may see even more regional deals like this during the next month before the UN climate talks start,” Roenningen said.

India and neighboring countries may sign a regional environment treaty next year, Ramesh said at a meeting of officials from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, known as Saarc.

“A regional environment treaty will be finalized, to be signed at the next Saarc summit at Thimpu in April,” Ramesh said on Oct. 20. Thimpu is the capital of Bhutan.

Saarc includes India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives and Bhutan. China is not a member.

Ministers from more than 30 African nations agreed in May that measures to adapt to the effects of climate change on agriculture, water supply, forests and human health should be included in national and regional development plans.

China’s bilateral deals aren´t limited to developing nations. In July it signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. to expand cooperation on clean-energy technology.

Chinese Pledge

The Indian-Chinese accord may become a building block in a possible global deal, said Josh Carmody, senior project specialist at the Asian Development Bank. “If they can form a common position, that´s one agreement toward a global agreement,” Carmody said in an interview from Manila.

Chinese President Hu Jintao said last month that his country will cut emissions in proportion to economic growth, without giving specific goals or whether he would include it in a global agreement.

India will keep its per-capita emissions lower than that of the rich nations, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh reiterated today in New Delhi.

“Equating greenhouse-gas emissions across nations on a per-capita basis is the only just and fair basis for a long-term global arrangement on climate change,” he said, according to a copy of his speech e-mailed by the Prime Minister’s office.

The United Nations is aiming for a climate agreement to replace or extend the Kyoto Protocol, expiring in 2012. After climate talks in Bangkok this month, countries have another week in Barcelona in November before the Copenhagen summit.

“India and China are most vulnerable to climate change,” Xie said yesterday. “Both countries are in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization. I am confident China and India will make a positive contribution to Copenhagen.”

Examining India

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol provisions are the most appropriate framework for addressing climate change, according to the copy of the agreement given to reporters in New Delhi.

India will consider outside measurement and verification of its efforts to tackle climate change if they were supported by international finance and the transfer of technology from developed nations, Ramesh said in an Oct. 20 statement.

“There is virtually no difference in Indian and Chinese negotiating positions,” Ramesh said.

Ramesh suggested this month only a limited agreement would emerge in Copenhagen and that the conference should focus on richer countries financing and aiding poorer nations affected by climate change.

Trust between wealthier and developing nations had “broken down” at recent UN negotiations in Bangkok, he said.