Brazil: Storm clouds ahead

AT THIS stage in Brazil’s presidential race it would probably take a full-blown hurricane to blow Dilma Rousseff, the front-runner, off course. With the voluble support of the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, she has pulled far ahead of her nearest rival, José Serra, and the occasional scandalous cloud on her campaign’s horizon has so far come to nothing. But with just over two weeks to go before the elections, Ms Rousseff may be entering squally weather.

Earlier this week Veja, a Brazilian news magazine, published an article alleging that Israel Guerra, whose mother, Erenice Guerra, is the presidential chief-of-staff, had helped private businesses win no-bid government contracts. In exchange, it said, he received “success fees” and monthly cash payments for “political commitments”. The magazine contended that Mr Guerra’s help amounted to influence-peddling by his mother, and that the payments were in reality bribes. Ms Guerra denies all wrongdoing and has called for an investigation, which she says will exonerate her.

Unlike the most prominent political scandal of the previous few weeks, in which junior members of Ms Rousseff’s Workers’ Party (PT) had illegally accessed private tax records of people close to Mr Serra, this one passes much closer to the front-runner. Until last year she herself was Lula’s chief of staff, and Ms Guerra was what she called her “right-hand woman”. Mr Serra has played the affair for all it is worth in his election advertising, showing footage of the two women together and emphasising their close and long-standing working relationship. Lula’s predecessor as president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, in whose government Mr Serra served, has also joined the fray, after keeping a low profile in recent years. “It’s the mensalão scandal all over again,” he said, recalling a scheme of monthly bribes paid by the PT to its congressional allies in exchange for their votes. “Plotting in the presidential palace, next door to the president”. Although the mensalão did not stop Lula from being re-elected in 2006, it is widely credited with having denied him a first-round victory.

There are important differences between the scandals. The mensalão was first revealed (again in Veja) two years before the last election, giving it more time to unfold in all its grisly glory. It also involved many more people than do the allegations against the Guerras. And although Ms Rousseff first tried to ignore the matter, the PT has since gone on the attack. After meeting with Lula to discuss strategy, Ms Guerra accused Mr Serra of “desperately trying…to breathe life“ into his doomed candidacy. Even so, Ms Rousseff’s team will be awaiting the next opinion polls with a new anxiety.