Brazil poised to grow at least 5.5%

A surge in consumer demand and a strong recovery in investment suggest that Brazil’s economy is on course to grow at least 5.5 per cent this year, according to data released on Thursday by the IBGE, the country’s national statistics office.

Consumption by families increased b7.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared with the same period in 2008, the IBGE said. Investment increased 3.6 per cent over the same period and 6.6 per cent compared with the previous quarter.

“For this year, we reiterate our projection of GDP [gross domestic product] growth of 6 per cent with robust growth at the margin over the coming quarters,” economists at Bradesco, a large private sector bank, said in a note to clients.

The IBGE said GDP grew 2 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter and fell 0.2 per cent for the whole of 2009 compared with 2008.

The annual figure will be a disappointment to the government, which was hoping for growth of up to 0.5 per cent, but is in line with analysts’ predictions.

The services sector advanced 4.6 per cent year-on-year and 0.6 per cent over the previous quarter, while industrial production grew 4 per cent by both measures.

The central bank said the data confirmed that, “after a brief recession, the Brazilian economy has entered a phase of vigorous expansion, accelerating at the margin . . . [The data] show renewed confidence in the outlook for our economy.”

Other figures released on Thursday showed a stronger than expected rise in retail sales in January, which grew 10.4 per cent compared with January 2009 and 2.7 per cent in comparison with December.

But not all economists think Brazil is ready for a sustained period of strong growth. Sérgio Vale, chief economist at MB Associados in São Paulo, said in 2009 and 2010 private consumption of R$208bn ($118bn, €86bn, £78bn) and government consumption of R$54bn would far outstrip investment of about R$10bn, putting a limit on Brazil’s non-inflationary growth rate.

In a note to clients, he said the potential growth rate was likely to stabilise at about 3.8 per cent for the next two years. Many economists fear Brazil’s fast recovery from last year’s brief recession is already creating inflationary pressure.

The central bank will decide next week whether or not to raise its target overnight interest rate from 8.75 per cent a year. The rate, which fell from 13.75 per cent between December 2008 and July 2009, is expected to rise to 11.25 per cent by the end of this year.