First-Time Debt Sales to Double as Yields Tumble: Brazil Credit
12 de janeiro de 2011”EUA têm 2 ou 3 anos para evitar um crash do dólar”
17 de janeiro de 2011Emerging market countries should consider all possible means to prevent rapid and volatile capital inflows destabilising their economies, according to the World Bank.
In its annual report on the global economy, released on Wednesday the bank also argued that the world economy was already rebalancing faster than many had expected, thanks to rapid domestic demand growth in emerging market countries.
“Our advice is to be as broad as possible in [using] countermeasures,” Hans Timmer, the bank’s director of the report, told the Financial Times. Some countries such as South Africa have mainly used the exchange rate to reduce the inflationary impact of capital flows, but the approach of countries such as Brazil in trying to manage inflows more directly was also legitimate. “It is not just a question of letting the exchange rate appreciate,” Mr Timmer said. Governments can try several measures at once, the report said.
The bank’s views are likely to be welcomed in many emerging markets, some of which have courted controversy by trying to block capital inflows and others of which have been criticised for relying too much on export growth. The bank’s sister institution, the International Monetary Fund, has shifted its thinking in favour of using capital controls, but has continued to warn that they should try to be light-touch and temporary.
Speaking on Wednesday in Washington, Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, also struck an emollient note about emerging markets’ efforts to prevent destabilising capital flows. Referring to a “new wave of experimentation going on” in such countries, Mr Geithner said: “I am not troubled at all in what you are seeing in terms of that new experimentation.”
He said the most important thing was to use prudential banking regulation to prevent such flows from financing large build-ups of debt in local systems.
The bank’s global economic prospects report pointed out the two-speed nature of the global recovery, with emerging markets growing much faster than rich countries. “The robust recovery in developing countries is all the more remarkable because it mainly reflects an expansion of their internal markets,” the bank said. “Developing countries are not just leading the recovery. Increasingly they are an important source of stability.”
The bank calculated domestic demand in developing economies had contributed 46 per cent of global growth in 2010. Overall economic growth in low and middle-income countries rose by 7 per cent in 2010, much of which was driven by India and China, the report said. The US has accused countries such as China of continuing to rely too much on export growth rather than shifting towards domestic demand.
